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Governors’ coronavirus pacts could thwart Trump goal of reopening country - POLITICO

If President Donald Trump insists on reopening parts of America as soon as next week, he'll likely encounter bipartisan resistance from governors who are partnering in regional alliances to keep the coronavirus at bay.

Minnesota’s Tim Walz has started conversations with his counterparts in North Dakota and Wisconsin about an upper Midwest pact to ensure that their states are in sync on rules around social distancing.

That effort follows Connecticut, New Jersey, New York and Pennsylvania joining last week to announce the closure of bars, movie theaters, malls and bowling alleys — all to try to avoid a patchwork of lockdowns and orders to close businesses.

The governors and public health experts say the localized lifting of restrictions could create new clusters of disease that leave officials chasing the outbreak well into the summer.

“We will combat this virus by working together and remaining consistent across our borders,” said Connecticut Gov. Ned Lamont.

But such alliances could become a source of friction as the White House weighs gradually lifting lockdowns in less hard hit areas — the latest indication the administration is itching to have some regions reopen for business. The plan comes on the heels of a historic surge in jobless claims.

“You’ll take certain states that aren't badly impacted where they have almost none or they have just a little bit” of an outbreak, Trump told Fox News host Sean Hannity Thursday night. “You take a look at some of these great states like Iowa, you take a look at Idaho and you take a look at Nebraska."

Any resulting clash would likely leave some Democratic governors with a history of tangling with the president with the final say. Governors have traditionally used their powers to declare emergencies to speed public health responses, suspending laws and regulations when necessary to address flu outbreaks in New York or the opioid crisis in Pennsylvania.

Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker, who tangled with Trump in a Twitter fight this week, said the president is looking at the stock market, not science.

“The patchwork remains a patchwork as long as the federal government doesn’t step up and recognize this is a war,” Pritzker said Friday. “The federal government needs to lead and until it does we will be a leader here in Illinois.”

But the concern crosses party lines, and even international borders. North Dakota Republican Gov. Doug Burgum, whose state has 65 confirmed cases, has spoken with South Dakota Republican Gov. Kristi Noem and Montana Democratic Gov. Steve Bullock, as well as premieres from Manitoba and Saskatchewan, about a set of best practices.

"What we do affects our neighbors and what our neighbors do affects us," Burgum said. "Because we are all part of one economic system."

Experts say piecemeal efforts to reopen the economy are doomed as long as big states like New York and California are closed, and the virus is likely to keep spreading without appropriate social distancing. Loosening restrictions before more is learned about transmission, moreover, will lead to a rolling series of outbreaks and follow-on restrictions that could cripple a regional economy, they say.

“If we were to return to business as usual too soon, we run the risk of the virus running rampant for who knows how long,” said David Cooper, a senior analyst at the Economic Policy Institute, a left-leaning think tank. “Not only would that lead to people needlessly suffering and dying, it would also be counterproductive to have outbreaks pop up indefinitely. … How are businesses going to plan and make investments if they can’t count on the health of their suppliers, employees or customers?”

That view isn’t shared by Iowa Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds, who said Friday that “we’re different here in Iowa than they are in New York.”

Other Trump allies like Texas Gov. Greg Abbott and Missouri’s Mike Parson have suggested a fast lifting of restrictions is unrealistic, and that they’re bracing for a long and difficult fight.

“I hope the president is right but the reality is we are planning this for much longer than two weeks,” Parson said.

White House coronavirus coordinator Deborah Birx has reinforced the notion that lifting restrictions in some places may be appropriate. On Thursday, she said that some predictions about the outbreak are overblown, warning against worst-case scenarios that she said aren't reflected by current data.

But without more testing, there is no way to be certain who’s sick and where, and to predict how the disease can spread, said Gregg Gonsalves, an assistant professor at the Yale School of Public Health.

“We have no idea where this epidemic is or what the extent of it is,” he said. “There is no way to control the epidemic if 20 states are social distancing and the other states aren’t. … No epidemiologist or economist worth their salt is supporting what the president and his group of advisers are suggesting.”

Andrew Kidd, an economist with the conservative Buckeye Institute in Columbus, Ohio, said declaring a county or region safe may be fruitless, because as soon as the case count increases in an area, people will return to their homes an lock down again.

“It’s about whether people view it as contained or not,” he said. “Until you get that buy-in you’re not going to get your economy where it needs to be.”

Still, it appears as if at least some governors are going their own way — and antagonizing other states in the process.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, whose self-described “surgical” approach to shut down orders in his state has alarmed public health experts, said Tuesday that he is eager to work with the president to see what his team can put together.

“There’s no way a nine-month shutdown would be sustainable,” the governor said, adding that completely locking down the economy is just as extreme as those who say the virus is no big deal.

Reynolds, too, has resisted calls for a shelter-in-place order, saying some hospitals have begged her not to do it.

“We have people on both sides of the issue,” Reynolds said. “Because there is a hot spot in one area of the state it might not be practical for me to issue a statewide stay at home when the data isn’t driving me to do that.”

Shia Kapos and Lorraine Woellert contributed to this report.

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