Alex Ovechkin is nearing 700 career goals, but how serious is his pursuit of Wayne Gretzky's record? - CBS Sports

After a seven-game stretch in which he scored 14 goals (!) to get to 698 for his career, Alex Ovechkin has been blanked in each of the past two games -- including one of his most frustrating performances of the season on Monday night against the Islanders. The good news, however, is this means you still have time to hop on board Ovechkin's path to 700 and join the debate about whether or not he can catch Wayne Gretzky's all-time goals record (894).

It's not a new question, but it's one that has been reignited along with No. 8's production in recent weeks. While at one point it seemed ridiculous to even think of anyone catching The Great One's record, it's not a complete longshot. Sure, another 196 goals is easier said than done for a 34-year-old Ovechkin, but there's also plenty of reason not to doubt him. Not many people thought Ovechkin would be this good for this long, either. He's now got his sixth 40-goal season in the last seven years. He's projected to finish at 59 goals this year, which would be his second-highest single season output behind a 65-goal campaign as a 22-year-old in 2007-2008. 

Even as a gray, aging wolf in a young man's game, Ovechkin still clearly has the speed, physicality and shot to not only keep up, but remain one of the best in the sport.

Over his last 300 NHL games, Ovechkin has 173 goals (0.58 goals per game). At that pace, he'd need 338 games to catch Gretzky -- or a little over four more seasons. It's reasonable to think that Ovi is due to hit a wall or slow down at some point in his (relatively) advanced age, but it's also reasonable to think he's got some 40-goal seasons left in him at this point. After that, even a handful of 15-30 goal seasons as he plays into his early 40s (think Jaromir Jagr) would get him to the record. 

Last week, Dom Luszczyszyn of The Athletic updated his goal-scoring projections for Ovechkin through his age 42 season:

• 2020: 59 
• 2021: 50 
• 2022: 47 
• 2023: 43
• 2024: 38 
• 2025: 33
• 2026: 27 
• 2027: 21

If those projections are clairvoyant, Ovechkin would break the record in 2024 around age 38 and then add some significant padding over the next few years. Yes, we're now at the point where we're talking about shattering Gretzky's record.

When discussing Ovechkin's sustainability and longevity, it's very important to recognize that he's only missed 31 total games over the course of his career so far. That's 31 games missed out of a possible 1,170 during his 14-plus year career... or 97-percent games played! Over the past two seasons, he's only missed two games -- both due to one-game suspensions for skipping the All-Star Game. 

So while Jagr was a rarity, Ovechkin is a well-oiled machine (albeit one that runs on a disgusting amount of Italian food) that viably follow a similar -- or perhaps a more impressive -- path.

It's also vital to consider Ovechkin's mentality. He is a nut who lives and breathes hockey and seems to still have a palpable passion and enjoyment for the game. It's hard to imagine him suddenly losing that spark and that desire in the coming years, especially if the record stays within reach and the Capitals remain competitive. 

After years of not even addressing the possibility of touching Gretzky's all-time mark, Ovechkin finally opened up to the idea last season... and he wants it. 

"I'm going to try to do it, but you don't know what's going to happen in the future," Ovechkin told NHL.com. 

None of us know what's going to happen in the future, but we do know what's true right now: Gretzky's all-time record can no longer be considered ironclad or unbreakable. That in itself is an achievement for Ovechkin. And considering the respective eras in which they both played, it probably doesn't even matter if Ovi eclipses Gretzky's mark at this point. He should already be considered the greatest goal scorer to ever do it. 

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Alex Ovechkin is nearing 700 career goals, but how serious is his pursuit of Wayne Gretzky's record? - CBS Sports
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